Coming into 2026, the milk price talk was downright depressing. Too much milk. Not enough demand. Plenty of global competition. Yet even amongst the bearish talk, the dairy markets have been full of surprises over the past few weeks – especially the nonfat dry milk market. After spending the better part of 2025 trudging in…
Based on the January 2026 USDA Cattle Inventory Report, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million head, down slightly from 37.3 million head from January 2025. Milk cow numbers reached 9.57 million head, up 2.0 percent from the prior year and the highest since 1993. However, U.S. milk cow number growth has…
USDA opened Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) enrollment for the 2026 Program Year on January 12. Those farms that enroll could potentially receive payments on milk produced from January through March, based on current margin projections on the USDA Decision Tool. As of February 2, the January margin under the DMC Program was forecast at $7.52…
As we cruise into February, it’s important to pause and consider the market conditions in the current dairy landscape. In this month’s update, we are going to focus on two key market principles – supply and demand – to understand the current environment and how they influence prices.
As a dairy producer, cultivating a risk management strategy can be a challenging task. There are a number of factors to consider, including risk tolerance, how long of a time horizon to protect, how actively one wants to follow the markets and their position, as well as the execution of the strategy. There are several…
When most producers think about managing risks on their dairy, they think about milk price and margins, weather and crop loss risks, animal health issues, and maybe even farm safety concerns. They don’t always think about how to manage against the risk of losing a key employee on the farm to another opportunity. While employee…
Based on the most recent USDA Agricultural Prices report, November’s margin was calculated to be $10.04 per cwt, just 54 cents above the $9.50 per cwt trigger. Even though November’s margin fell from October’s $10.87, no indemnities were paid out at any coverage level. For the 2025 program year, this would be the eleventh consecutive…
The USDA announced September’s and October’s margin to be $10.87 and $10.52 per hundredweight (cwt) for the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC), down 65 cents and $1.00 from August’s margin of $11.52 per cwt. For both months, margins were above $9.50, which resulted in no indemnities being triggered at any coverage level.
U.S. cheese exports hit it out of the park in 2025 with record volumes shipped. But what’s the big hoopla about cheese export sales growth outside of Mexico? It all comes down to stolen market share. In many cases, 2025 export gains are the result of more competitive U.S. prices. That’s especially true when compared…
A growing milk supply has pushed Class III and IV milk prices down significantly over the past few months. USDA announced November’s Class III milk price at $17.18 per hundredweight, up 27 cents from October but down $2.77 from a year ago levels. This is the lowest Class III milk price seen since April 2024.
